Overview:

The retail paper bag market is projected to command a valuation of approximately USD 1,880.1 million by the close of 2025. Projections indicate a consistent growth pattern, with sales anticipated to climb to roughly USD 2,875.5 million by 2035. This expansion is supported by a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 4.5% over the ten-year forecast period from 2025 to 2035. The market turnover in 2024 was recorded at approximately USD 1,810 million.

A significant portion of the market, close to 40%, is attributed to the food and beverage sector. The increasing demand for sustainable packaging options, particularly for takeout and supermarket purchases, has accelerated the adoption of biodegradable and compostable paper bags by numerous food service establishments and retail outlets.

Many brands are moving away from traditional plastic bags to embrace kraft paper alternatives.This shift is largely influenced by prevailing environmental standards and a consumer base that prioritizes eco-friendly choices. The proliferation of quick-service restaurants and digital food delivery services has also spurred the need for robust, grease-resistant paper bag solutions.

In the thickness category, 2-ply paper bags represent the largest share, accounting for approximately 45% of the market. These lighter bags are a cost-effective solution frequently used by retailers, for food deliveries, and in grocery packaging. Their ease of printing and recyclability further enhances their appeal. While 1-ply options are suitable for lighter items, 2-ply provides essential additional strength for heavier loads. Furthermore, the increasing use of multi-use paper bags for promotional and branding initiatives, particularly within the fashion and boutique segments, continues to boost sector expansion.

The retail paper bag market is poised to uncover substantial growth avenues during the forecast period. The market is expected to deliver an incremental value opportunity totaling around USD 1,070.4 million, signaling an increase of approximately 1.6 times its present valuation by 2035.

Analysis of semi-annual trends indicates varied growth rates. From the first half of 2024 to 2034, the market is expected to see a CAGR of 4.1%, slightly less than the 4.7% projected for the second half of the same decade. Looking ahead to the period from the first half of 2025 through the second half of 2035, the CAGR is predicted to settle at approximately 3.7% in the first half and a robust 5.1% in the latter half. Comparing short-term periods, the market experienced a decline of approximately 40 basis points in the first half, while the second half saw an increase of about 40 basis points.